Right now, it’s impossible to ignore COVID-19 and the world’s reaction to it. Not only our country, but the entire world is immersed in the hold this virus has on our health, social dynamics, work and schooling. Back in mid-January, the virus outbreak was found fairly exclusively in some pneumonia cases in the Chinese city of Wuhan, until it started appearing in other countries like Thailand and Japan. When researchers used flight data to estimate how many unreported cases of the virus there must have been to generate the patterns they were seeing of it popping up in other countries, their math told them that the total infected population in Wuhan was likely to be thousands, which is what led to their quarantine. This week, we’re going to dive into a topic that is taking the world by storm and just how essential math will be to help solve everything related to the COVID-19 outbreak.
First off, perhaps the two biggest questions out there that scientists and mathematicians are trying to answer are: 1. How many cases are there? 2. How severe is the disease? However, there should be a third important question: 3. How long should cases be tracked before coming out with accurate prediction statistics? If we look at the the Ebola outbreak that happened in West Africa in 2014, reports dealing with just the first two questions above ended up being inaccurate because they came out too early and didn’t include information regarding the third question above. There is generally a delay of a couple weeks between people falling ill and either recovering or not. There is then generally a delay in including the most recent cases, because analysis can’t be done without knowing what will happen to them. Currently, if there is an adjustment for the delay and more focus is done on cases that occurred long enough ago to know what happened to those with the virus, we will have better statistics as time goes on.
Math isn’t only useful for understanding the extent and prediction of illness and infection, it can also help us figure out what to do about it. Viruses are teeny, tiny troublesome clusters of particles. They are a thousand times smaller than bacteria and smaller than most human cells, too. They consist of a nucleic acid, coat of protein and lipid membrane and they can be all different shapes. Viruses must have a host cell, which is either a bacteria, plant or animal which is the only way they can function.
Enter: social distancing.
Because viruses need a host to live, there have been several human viral outbreaks in the history of the world that have been widely spread due to human contact. Now, more than ever, we are a globalized society and there are great benefits to that. Think of many of the delicious foods we eat, or a lot of our electronics and cars. Without a global economy, we would be hard-pressed for these items. Being so globalized also makes us at risk for viruses to transfer and chow down on us though. Most of us have contact with many other people throughout the day, which is exactly how the virus is spread. With this said, one of the best ways that math predicted we stay healthy as a population during this COVID-19 outbreak, before there is a vaccination, is to distance ourselves from others in large groups, despite that it means no school or Mathnasium for kids.
We totally understand your perspective parents – social distancing is difficult when you are used to a routine where you interact with many other adults and possibly other kids besides your own. Also, you count on other adults to help with your child's learning and enrichment. It turns out that not everyone is cut out to be a teacher! There are reasons why you should hug one when we can socially reacquaint ourselves again. Most kids are being assigned classwork/homework online through their school districts, but if you need ideas for good math activities for your kids to do, here’s a link to some great Word Problem Wednesdays amongst other Math Activities from our Corporate Head Quarters. These are great math supplements for your child anytime, but they are especially great during a time when your child is out of their routine and needing to stay focused and grounded in their schoolwork.
Despite that in reality, we will only ever experience one reality of how the COVID-19 outbreak will happen, with mathematical models, we can simulate dozens of alternatives. This is immensely helpful in forecasting locations of outbreaks, how quickly they might grow and advising what measures should be taken to curb it. Although this virus has turned into a huge outbreak, with some mathematical help, the hope is that case number will reduce to something manageable for our country and population.
During these trying times as a parent, remember to be grateful for you and your family’s health, despite whether your child attended school with pants or not today.
