If ever there is a device invented used to predict the future, it will involve math. Think about a time machine. That’s surely going to take engineers and quantum physicists to put together. Or think about the weather… something that is actually already being predicted. Does that make meteorologists psychic? It depends on your definition, but weather is most certainly predicted using math. Despite that there are still times you might be stuck out in the rain without boots and an umbrella due to inaccurate weather, technology in predicting weather and creating weather forecasts is getting better to help you not ruin your new Nikes. Let’s dive into how math influences weather forecasts and why math is the hero in this story!
To begin, weather forecasting involves supercomputers. Supercomputers sound like they’re something from Star Trek, and they sort of look like they’re from the future too. They’re computers made for super high-level performance and are not only used in weather forecasting, but also computational science, molecular modeling, climate research and oil and gas exploration. Each of these computers is about the size of a school bus and they collect and organize billions of observations about earth every day, including air pressure, temperature, water levels, wind speed and moisture. Using all of these factors, which are the criteria that go into weather prediction models, the supercomputers convert the observations into numbers.
After collecting and organizing the data included in the prediction model, the supercomputers plug their observations into a series of mathematical algorithms that denote the physical properties of the atmosphere and predict what will happen in terms of weather globally for up to 16 days into the future. The equations the supercomputers come up with help predict complex weather systems and their behavior and intensity. They take into account how atmospheric patterns drive the systems and how they influence each other. By mapping the equations out on smaller grids, they can predict the time and space weather systems will occur, too.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the US agency that’s accountable for monitoring our climate and our environment and they are the agency responsible for overseeing the supercomputers that help predict weather patterns and systems. By using the supercomputers, they are able to predict seasonal climate, hurricanes, ocean waves, storm surge, flooding and air quality. While the supercomputers are already responsible for a fair amount of prediction, with technology advancing fairly rapidly, there are constant advancements in the amount of earth observations these supercomputers are able to make, outside of just weather.
You might be thinking, with all these supercomputers and phones telling me my weather forecast, how do meteorologists have jobs? Beyond supercomputers, meteorologists are still important for a few reasons. For one, they are useful during severe weather – to report it and sometimes interrupt regularly scheduled programming to inform people. Sometimes pattern recognition allows meteorologists to better identify what’s called a hook echo (a hook shaped weather radar signature as part of a supercell thunderstorms) and initiate warnings for this faster than a computer can identify it. Second, they’re still needed in guiding emergency managers regarding making hard decisions during severe weather, which is no small feat seeing as that some weather systems affect millions of people. The Washington Post’s weather editor, Jason Samenow perhaps said it best when he stated that “60 percent…is science and 40 percent is art” when it comes to meteorology.
Accurate weather forecasts are important day to day to help people prevent being caught in unsavory weather and being ill prepared for it. There’s a saying in Colorado that goes something like “if you don’t like the weather, wait around for 4 hours.” Our weather happens to be very fickle sometimes! Think of how many times you’ve probably worn shorts or a skirt to work and when you leave to come home it’s snowing. Looking at your iPhone or listening to your local weather station before you leave for work helps with this! It also helps with prepping your children in the morning for anytime they might spend outside. Weather prediction is also very important when it comes to weather related natural disasters. Warning people that hurricanes, tornados and floods are likely going to hit is important for the protection of people, as well as for preparation to try to mitigate the damage during and after. Things like jugs of water, batteries, charcoal to cook food, prepared snacks, disposable utensils, pet food, prescriptions and baby wipes/towels for bathing are on typical disaster kit lists when preparing to not have water or electricity for days due to damages caused by weather related natural disasters. In some instances people are asked to evacuate their homes and leave everything due to potentially hazardous situations.
Overall, studying and predicting the weather takes a discernable amount of math weather it’s done by a supercomputer or meteorologist. If your student is showing interest in weather and it’s causes, they can beef up on their math and science courses, specifically Earth Science in high school. In college they can start meteorological programs that are more specifically geared for graduate programs that will lead to them becoming meteorologists, but they will no doubt have a lot of math to take!
