When students, educators, and administrators return to school after the COVID-19 closures, classrooms will be a changed landscape, one likely marked by larger equity gaps, substantial learning loss for many students, and continued economic turmoil for our most marginalized families.
“Given NWEA’s depth of research and our partnerships with other mission-driven organizations, we’re in a unique position to offer valuable insights to the education community as we navigate through this crisis,” says CEO Chris Minnich. “Together, we can mitigate the impact on kids—especially for those most vulnerable in our population—and continue our efforts to narrow opportunity gaps.”
While it is difficult to speculate on what missing months of school may mean for student achievement, research on seasonal learning and summer learning loss can offer some insights that can help educators, policymakers, and families understand, plan for, and address some potential impacts of this extended pause in classroom instruction when students return to school.
Possible outcomes of coronavirus school closures
NWEA has released projections that current school closures could result in substantially lower achievement levels for students. The forecasts used a national sample of over five million students in grades 3–8 who took MAP® Growth™ assessments to estimate potential impacts of COVID-19 related school closures.
Together, we can mitigate the impact on kids—especially for those most vulnerable in our population—and continue our efforts to narrow opportunity gaps.”
My colleague Megan Kuhfeld and I compared academic achievement trajectories during a typical school year for grades 3–8 where no disruption to learning took place to two scenarios that could result from school closures: a COVID-19 slide, in which students show patterns of learning loss typical of summers throughout the extended closures, and a COVID-19 slowdown, in which students maintain the same level of academic achievement they had when schools were closed (modeled for simplicity as beginning March 15) until schools reopen.
Preliminary estimates suggest impacts may be larger in math than in reading and that students may return in fall 2020 with less than 50% of typical learning gains and, in some grades, nearly a full year behind what we would expect in this subject in normal conditions.
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